The death of the Supreme Leader has created a power vacuum that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is more than willing to fill. While the constitutional process for succession is being followed, the real power shift is happening behind the scenes, as the IRGC prepares to take a more dominant role in the political life of the Islamic Republic.
Security in Tehran and other major cities remains tight, with a massive presence of paramilitaries and armed police. This “security first” approach is designed to suppress any domestic unrest and project an image of stability. The government is all too aware of the “widespread disillusionment” among its citizens, a sentiment that was recently highlighted by a journalist’s slip of the tongue on live television.
An interim council is currently performing the duties of the Supreme Leader, providing a temporary buffer for the Assembly of Experts. This body of senior clerics is tasked with finding a candidate who can command both religious authority and the loyalty of the military. The IRGC’s influence over this process is significant and is expected to grow in the coming weeks.
Mojtaba Khamenei remains a pivotal figure in succession discussions. His potential rise to power is seen as a way to ensure the continuity of the current military-focused policies. However, such a move would be controversial and could spark further dissent among both the public and the clerical elite.
The international community is also watching for shifts in Iran’s nuclear policy. The late leader’s religious ban on nuclear weapons was a key part of his authority. In his absence, the IRGC may push for a more aggressive nuclear program, viewing it as essential for the country’s survival in an increasingly hostile region.
Power Shift: The IRGC’s Growing Political Role After the Airstrike
